Simulator

The dashboard strategy applied to a portfolio: starting capital, monthly contribution and per-order fees.The same strategy settings as the dashboard, applied this time to a portfolio: a starting capital, a monthly contribution and per-order fees. Capital never changes the signal — it only tells you what it would have returned.

From September 12, 2016 to September 10, 2026

Final value

$280,799

Gain

+$246,799

+726%

Capital invested

$34,000

Total fees

-$145

145 orders

The strategy against its references

Strategy

Final value: $280,799
Gain: +$246,799
Per year: +31.9%
Worst drop: -46%

QLDheld throughout

Final value: $296,820
Gain: +$262,820
Per year: +33%
Worst drop: -63.7%

QQQheld throughout

Final value: $134,253
Gain: +$100,253
Per year: +20.7%
Worst drop: -35.1%

Portfolio	Final value	Gain	Per year	Worst drop
Strategy	$280,799$145 of it in fees	+$246,799	+31.9% TWR+31.5% IRR	-46%$44,232 → $24,008Feb 20 → Mar 20
QLDheld throughout	$296,820$121 of it in fees	+$262,820	+33% TWR+32.4% IRR	-63.7%$139,575 → $52,316Nov 21 → Dec 22
QQQheld throughout	$134,253$121 of it in fees	+$100,253	+20.7% TWR+20.5% IRR	-35.1%$63,521 → $43,015Dec 21 → Nov 22

How the portfolio evolved

Log scale

StrategyQLDQQQCapital invested

Year by year

Year	Strategy	QLD	QQQ
2026partial year	+21%	+25.9%	+15.9%
2025	+27.7%	+30.4%	+20.8%
2024	+47.1%	+47.1%	+27.5%
2023	+82.5%	+113%	+53.3%
2022	-43.2%	-61.9%	-33.7%
2021	+62.5%	+62.5%	+30.5%
2020	+66.6%	+77.7%	+43.9%
2019	+39.6%	+86.3%	+40.7%
2018	-2.5%	-10.7%	-1.5%
2017	+73.2%	+73.2%	+33.8%
2016partial year	+5.9%	+5.9%	+3.3%

These settings are chosen with the past already known. A setting that beats the others by a hair on a single history proves very little: look above all at the worst drop and the number of switches, which tell you what you would have had to sit through.